Gambling's lure cancels diligence
23.09.2008 13:00
Shopping
- Source: toledoblade.com
Recent months have been tough ones for investors and homeowners. Before the rally late last week, the average stock portfolio was down about 25 percent from last October's peak. Home prices fell nationwide in recent months, too, and some experts say they could drop another 10 to 15 percent in the next year. So, naturally, people will be taking a closer look at the quality of their investments - and perhaps even at the value they're getting when they purchase goods and services. Money is tight. But I'll give you 9-to-5 odds they won't use the same care when they gamble, for amusement and diversion, of course. In other words, the due diligence and risk-versus-reward calculations needed for investments go out the window when it comes to gambling. A 25 percent loss of an investment is a scary thing. But last year, consumers spent more than $2.6 billion buying tickets from the Ohio Lottery and from the state's racehorse tracks, and they got back 62 percent of their money. That's a loss of 38 percent, but very few people blinked. Race track returns are fairly constant around the country, and most state lotteries return about 50 percent back to the public. In contrast, the Nevada casinos offer more bang for the buck. Last year, a total of $171 billion was gambled at the state's casinos, and bettors got back about 92 percent of it, says the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas. The house "edge" was just 6 percent for slot machines and 13 percent for table games and sports books. But, if you're going to gamble, legally that is, in Ohio, your best bet is the horses (including simulcast races from around the country), because the rake-off is just 21 percent. That means if you are a good handicapper, you stand at least a chance of breaking even or possibly taking some of the dollars less knowledgeable people wagered. If you're hooked on the lottery, your best bet is not to be too greedy. Lottery payoffs at the low end tend to be fairly respectable, but payoffs for the higher jackpots are very stingy, considering the enormous odds, and some are ridiculous. For example, one of the best bets is the simple, if unexciting, Pick 3 and Pick 4 twice-daily games. Any three-digit number, from 000 to 999, stands a one-in-1,000 chance of being drawn, and the payoff is 500-to-1. A winning $1 bet yields $500, or half of totally "honest" odds. A 50-cent bet pays $250. But look what happens to risk-versus-reward when you step up to the Classic Lotto. The jackpot starts at $1 million and has gone as high as $24.6 million, with $7.9 million being the average. The actual odds of getting all six of your numbers in a drawing are nearly 14 million to 1. It gets worse with some of the other games. Ohio's new Keno game seems attractive at first. Out of a pool of 80 numbers, 20 are drawn every four minutes. You can pick any one number and win $2, although the actual chances are 1 in 4. Pick two and win $11; actual odds are 1 in 17. So far, so good. Pick a "4-spot" and if you win you get $72, on actual odds of 327-1. Still not too bad. But if you put your $1 on a "10-spot" and hope to win the $100,000 prize, lots of luck. The odds are 8.9 million to 1. So, your payoff would be about one-ninetieth of the commensurate risk. The Ohio Lottery Commission's marketing slogan is: "Odds are you'll have fun." The truth is: Odds are you'll lose your money. But, having spouted off about that, I'm wondering where I put my list of numbers for the next Rolling Cash drawing.
| 
Add comment